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Poultry The industry is currently experiencing shortages from all countries on supplies of chicken. This is due to the further spread of Avian Influenza in Poland with at least two abattoirs shut for at least another month. This has come at a time when Newcastle disease, a highly contagious virus that affects birds, especially poultry, is on the increase in Poland, making things a lot worse. The recent cull of 110,000 birds over a two-week February period has further pressured the poultry industry. Prices rising As we come out of winter into spring, there is traditionally more demand for chicken. We will also hit the Dutch bank holidays where they have 4-day weeks for around 4 out of 8 weeks. This always causes prices to rise and a shortage of chicken. On top of the current situation in Poland, we could see prices keep rising for the next 4-6 weeks. The UK market hasn’t been helped by the new ruling that birds require more space in the pens to move around. This has started to be implemented over the last few weeks. This will mean there is less UK chicken on the market, as space for more sheds to cover the loss of birds is causing issues. . Higher welfare chicken commitment As widely reported, many UK chicken producers are mobilising towards the higher welfare chicken commitment. The project is designed to address the issues related to breeding for fast growth and high yield, stocking density and slaughter, where cages and multi-tier systems will be banned. In return, chicken reared in these current systems will still be kept indoors but will have more space with the aim to use birds with a slower genetic growth potential (longer life) and will have access to better natural lighting and perches. Producer yield and throughputs will become significantly lower whilst costs remain the same, therefore the costs will ultimately be passed on. Campbell Brothers are committed to working with our key partners to ensure our clients have access to the higher welfare poultry. Turkeys affected: Turkeys have been hit by the issues in Poland as well, so prices have not dropped significantly since the start of the New Year, which they would normally do. Some turkey producers in the UK are considering switching to chicken production, as they can raise three batches of chickens in the same timeframe it takes to raise one batch of turkeys. This shift could lead to shortages for customers seeking UK turkey later in the year. As from April there will be some significant price increases, along with possible shortages, which is down to the following factors, please note that this is industry wide and not specific to Campbell Brothers. We are working closely with our suppliers to limit any disruption to supply, To date in 2025, a total of 109 commercial premises have been hit by the virus in 14 countries monitored by the EC. Highest totals so far have been confirmed by Poland (37), Hungary (23), and Italy (21). For comparison, the EC recorded a total of 451 outbreaks across 20 countries during the whole of 2024. www.campbellbrothers.co.uk
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Poultry contd. Polish industry (production approx. 45 million birds weekly) The spreading outbreaks of Avian Flu have reduced the capacity of the Polish industry to a staggering 25% now. As you can see this is the equivalent of the total output of the Dutch/Belgian industry. In order to prevent further outbreaks, there is a zone of 10 km around the outbreak where birds can be slaughtered, but not certified for export outside of the EU, including product processed in EU and dedicated for UK. In Poland over the last 10 years very big farms have been built in specific areas. The farms are sometimes as big as one million birds per farm and are all located in the same areas. The number of birds affected by this is around 8,5 million birds. These could only be used within EU. All farms within a 3 km zone of an outbreak have to be culled and disinfected and after that cannot be used for 45 days. In total for a farm to be back up and running is a minimum of 94 days (3 months). For Newcastle disease outbreaks the same rules apply as for Avian Flu. This has been in Poland since Jan 25. Hatching eggs : prices doubled in 2 months due to availability issues. Hatcheries and grandparent stocks have also been affected by Avian Flu and it will take much longer to recuperate to full supply. The outlook now is at least shortages until September. Netherlands/Belgian industry (production approx. 11 million birds weekly) Over the festive period many farmers took a 3 weeks pause to conduct maintenance on their farms. The outcome of this is that there were no chickens grown in this period which has led to a delay of of 42-48 days this has resulted in fewer birds available to the slaughterhouses The continuous transformation of farms to lower stocking density farms which reduces the output of the farms with approximately 20% Brexit requirements for health certificates has reduced the number of operators exporting to the UK and has reduced the number of logistic partners serving the UK with groupage services Due to the ongoing Avian Flu outbreak in Poland, more demand has been put onto the wider EU chicken processors, which is impacting the raw material available to the UK. When you also then factor in the regulations the UK currently have, suppliers are favouring selling their products within the UK. UK Market The UK market supplies the majority of retail within the UK and are now experiencing demand issues with the ongoing issues in the EU. With the increases in costs for all businesses for April prices are expected to rise and availability to become very tight. In conclusion. As the demand for fresh chicken increases - often influenced by seasonal trends or heightened consumption patterns - prices are subjected to upward pressure. Fresh chicken is a staple product, and any surge in demand can quickly strain the supply chain, leading to price volatility. Poultry at time of writing has seen an 8% general cost increase throughout January and February 2025 v November and December 2024 and is 20% more expensive than the same time last year. www.campbellbrothers.co.uk
